Page and Associates Ltd.

Family Wealth Management

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Noah Blackstein – interviewed on CNBC 2022 May 5

Noah Blackstein, Portfolio manager at Dynamic Funds, interviewed on CNBC.

“The Market got ‘carried away’ with 75 basis point rate hike” says Dynamic Funds’ Noah Blackstein in this interview on CNBC.

Key Points
Were you surprised by what the Fed did yesterday? Was this your expectation ahead of hearing Jay Powell say that 75 basis points was not on the table right now?

  • The market got really carried away with 75 basis points; we’re still starting quantitative tightening with at least two 50 basis point hikes coming
  • Re: move in Treasury yields and mortgage rates year-to-date: mortgage rates are up almost 70% year-to-date, there is no way that a 70% move in mortgage rates isn’t going to have an impact but real estate has a much longer lag than stocks
  • “In the relative asset game, mortgages and housing have a much larger and more significant impact on the overall economy; dialing it back a little bit is not unwarranted and being a little more data dependent is certainly not unwarranted at all”

The markets have moved significantly over the last several days. You saw a nine hundred points plus move yesterday, and that was the third day in a row of gains for the markets. But it really just got us back to last Thursday. Have you been a buyer on the dips that we’ve seen the last several weeks?

  • It’s been a very tough market for legitimate growth managers since the macro took over in November, the S&P 500 is still about 7% off of where it was on the March rally
  • Looking at growth stocks today, relative valuation multiples (an area of primary focus for Noah) are at some of the lowest levels since 1980
    Will look to take advantage of awful sentiment (worst Nasdaq start since 2001, worst month for Nasdaq since 2008, worst month for the S&P since the pandemic) and focus on the many catalysts for a move higher (passing peak inflation has been good for markets, and we probably passed peak inflation in March)

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Top GIC Rates – 2022 March 31

GIC rates are up substantially across all terms along with central bank rate increases and rising bond market yields. The graph below shows top GIC rates available from over 25 Banks and Trust companies as of March 31, 2022, and compares them with several prior periods. (Source: Cannex Financial Exchanges)

GICs have always been a reasonable alternative to bonds, but don’t have a market value that fluctuates like a bond, because they are generally not redeemable prior to their maturity dates. For investors who don’t require liquidity in part of their fixed-income holdings, GICs may be an excellent complement to a more growth-oriented investment portfolio.

Because we deal with a large number of banks outside the ‘Big 6’, we are usually able to obtain rates significantly higher than those posted at bank branches but still qualify for Canada Deposit Insurance coverage (Rules at www.cdic.ca ).

Click to view our current Top GIC Rates.

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Interest Rate Commentary 2021 Mar 31

What a roller-coaster ride for bond investors this past year, and the first quarter of 2021 delivered an unsettling bump! Graphs compare the yield on the US Generic Government 10 Year bond with the yield on the comparable 2 year bond over the past 5 years. The arrival of COVID-19 in early 2020 saw bond yields plunge as investors sought safe havens, with both yields touching historic lows, but the 10-year yield has now recovered by over 1% and GIC rates followed suit, with a 5-year term now offering 2%.

Click to view the commentary and graphs.