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May 15, 2025 By Page and Associates

Investment Market Commentary

North American stocks plunged at the start of April after President Donald Trump announced a sweeping set of global trade tariffs on April 2—measures that far exceeded market expectations. In response, the yield on the benchmark US 10-year Treasury bond surged by half a percentage point in just one week—its largest weekly jump since 2001—highlighting mounting concern in fixed income markets. Gold prices also fell sharply, and market volatility spiked.

However, one week later, equity markets staged a sharp rebound when the president unexpectedly announced a “90-day pause” on the proposed tariffs. While volatility persisted throughout the month due to continued US-China trade tensions, markets stabilized and gradually recovered much of their early-April losses. Bond yields declined as risk appetite improved.

Despite further uncertainty—including President Trump questioning (then reaffirming) Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s job security, and a mixed message on tariffs (initially reiterated, then eased for electronics including iPhones)—markets closed the month on a more optimistic note, having recouped most or all of their pullback from early in the month.

For the month of April:

  • The S&P/TSX Composite Index was nearly unchanged, down just 0.10%
  • The S&P 500 Index fell 0.70%
  • The Nasdaq rose 0.88%
  • The MSCI World Index declined 0.37%
  • The MSCI EAFE Index dipped 0.07%
  • The FTSE Canada Universe Bond Index fell 0.65%

Key Market Developments

  • Tariffs & Trade: On April 2, the US announced reciprocal tariffs on nearly all trading partners. A week later, the White House paused the plan for 90 days, substituting a 10% tariff on most countries, with China facing a steep 145% rate.
  • US Inflation: The annual CPI fell to 2.4% in March, down from 2.8% in February.
  • Retail Sales: US retail sales rose 1.4% in March, largely driven by autos and building materials—likely reflecting pre-tariff purchases.
  • Fed Chair Powell: Publicly warned the tariffs were “significantly larger” than expected and could hinder growth while stoking inflation.
  • Consumer Sentiment: April consumer confidence dropped sharply:
    • Conference Board expectations fell to 54.4—levels often seen before recessions.
    • University of Michigan sentiment dropped to 52.2, with inflation expectations hitting 6.5%—the highest since 1981.
  • Employment: Private payrolls increased by just 62,000 in April (vs. 115,000 expected). The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.
  • GDP: Q1 US GDP contracted at an annual rate of 0.3%, down from 2.4% in Q4 2024. The decline was driven by rising imports and lower government spending, partly offset by gains in consumer spending, investment, and exports.

Canadian Economic Highlights

  • The Canadian economy shrank by 0.2% in February, following 0.4% growth in January. Early indicators point to moderate growth in March.
  • Retail sales fell 0.4% in February but are estimated to have risen 0.7% in March.
  • Inflation eased to 2.3% in March, from 2.6% in February.
  • Canada lost 33,000 jobs in March, pushing the unemployment rate to 6.7%.
  • The Bank of Canada held its key policy rate steady at 2.75%, citing uncertainty from trade tensions.

International Outlook

  • Europe: German and UK markets dropped sharply early in the month before partly recovering. The ECB cut rates again to 2.25%, its seventh cut since June 2024, as inflation eased to 2.2%. Eurozone Q1 GDP rose 0.4%, up from 0.2% in Q4 2024.
  • China: Growth concerns intensified. The manufacturing PMI fell to 49.0, signaling contraction, as export orders dropped to their lowest level since the pandemic.
  • Japan: Inflation accelerated to 3.1% in April, prompting speculation about further rate hikes from the Bank of Japan.
  • Commodities: Gold continued its strong run, rising 5.8% in April to close at USD $3,305/oz. Oil prices declined and remain well below their January highs.

Implications for Your Investments

As April closed, Canadian voters elected a new government amid heightened concern about economic sovereignty and trade policy. With Mark Carney now confirmed as Prime Minister, his minority Liberal government faces an immediate challenge: high-stakes trade negotiations with the US. Meanwhile, the IMF downgraded global growth projections, citing escalating trade tensions. Canada’s 2025 growth outlook was revised down from 1.8% to 1.4, while the US is expected to grow closer to its long-term trend of 1.8%.

Despite early-month turmoil, markets ended April showing resilience. Investors will remain focused on how US trade policy evolves, and how macroeconomic indicators—growth, inflation, employment—develop in this uncertain landscape.

The information in this letter is derived from various sources, including CBC, The Wall Street Journal, The Global and Mail, BNN Bloomberg, Financial Times, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Statistics Canada, and The New York Times at various dates. This material is provided for general information and is subject to change without notice. Every effort has been made to compile this material from reliable sources and reasonable steps have been taken to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. Before acting on any of the above, please contact me for individual financial advice based on your personal circumstances. Certain statements contained in this communication are based in whole or in part on information provided by third parties and CI Global Asset Management has taken reasonable steps to ensure their accuracy. Market conditions may change which may impact the information contained in this document. 

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: invest, market, return

May 8, 2025 By Page and Associates

Portfolio Benchmarks to 2025 April 30

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Each month-end we publish total return data for various investment market indices, as well as a composite portfolio return benchmark for model portfolios of three different asset allocations. These may be useful guides to reasonable performance of your own portfolio or its components.

Click to view the Index Return Table.

Click to view the Portfolio Benchmarks.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: benchmark, index, invest, investment, market, portfolio, return

April 10, 2025 By Page and Associates

Portfolio Benchmarks to 2025 March 31

Graph Icon

Each month-end we publish total return data for various investment market indices, as well as a composite portfolio return benchmark for model portfolios of three different asset allocations. These may be useful guides to reasonable performance of your own portfolio or its components.

Click to view the Index Return Table.

Click to view the Portfolio Benchmarks.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: benchmark, index, invest, investment, market, portfolio, return

March 7, 2025 By Page and Associates

Portfolio Benchmarks to 2025 February 28

Graph Icon

Each month-end we publish total return data for various investment market indices, as well as a composite portfolio return benchmark for model portfolios of three different asset allocations. These may be useful guides to reasonable performance of your own portfolio or its components.

Click to view the Index Return Table.

Click to view the Portfolio Benchmarks.

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: benchmark, index, invest, investment, market, portfolio, return

March 4, 2025 By Page and Associates

Tariffs

2025 Mar 4

If you’ve been watching the news the past couple of months, you’re probably already tired of hearing the word Tariff. They have been threatened since before the US election last November, and now that US Import Tariffs against Canada and Mexico have actually taken effect, asset markets are reflecting the drag these measures will have against economic growth and employment in all three countries.

Canada’s counter-tariffs were implemented the same day as the US tariffs against us, and Ontario’s Export Duty will soon apply to electricity exports to the US (penalizing US voters while raising revenue in Canada). Further actions should be expected from each party, and markets will be volatile. If the tariffs remain in place for an extended period, this will likely cause a mild recession in Canada (per BMO today), while Canada lines up other export markets. The Bank of Canada may be more inclined to cut rates again next week as a defensive measure.

The question now is how long the tariffs remain in place and what level they settle at. I believe that before long, all parties will agree that tariffs are not the best policy option, and some variation of NAFTA/USMCA will be worked out. In most cases tariffs are essentially a tax on consumers that shields local production from full competition, while consumers are better off on balance to import goods when it is less costly to do so, provided that the producer is operating in accordance with fair production practices and maintains a reasonable trade balance. Trade agreements are the tool generally used to balance these interests.

Since the US election November 5th, North American markets have surged and retreated several times in about a 5% range, partly on policy uncertainty. Today was the second trading day since the tariffs were confirmed on Monday, showing about a 4% decline since the most recent peak Feb 19, now back to the January 10-13 lows, but still above election day values. Meanwhile, the MSCI (EAFE) index of developed countries outside North America is up over 10% since its Jan 13 low, up about 4.5% since election day – international diversification usually stabilizes portfolios overall.

If you have a long time horizon for your investments, short term geopolitical conflicts should not cause a change in overall strategy. History usually shows such events as mere blips when looking back 5 or 10 years. We select fund managers with a solid track record who can make adjustments to their stock and bond holdings on your behalf as they navigate through such disruptions. This too shall pass.

Major market indices since Jan 2020

Filed Under: Uncategorized Tagged With: investment, market

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