Page and Associates Ltd.

Family Wealth Management

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Getting Long-Term Bullish


Portfolio manager Ben Carlson reviews various past bear markets and their performance in the years following. He acknowledges the discomfort and pessimism that usually come with bear markets: “It doesn’t take a genius to point out the bad stuff today. Being bearish is easy right now.”

He also argues that being bullish for the long term is supported by history, even if you may still be bearish in the short term: “The stock market doesn’t fall 25-30% or very often and when it has in the past it’s provided solid returns when your time horizon is measured in years as opposed to days or months.”

He reminds us that very single bear market in the history of U.S. stocks has resolved to new all-time highs eventually, and that buying stocks when there is blood in the streets is generally a wonderful idea historically speaking.


https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2022/10/getting-long-term-bullish/

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Portfolio Benchmarks to 2022 August 31

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Each month-end we publish total return data for various investment market indices, as well as a composite portfolio return benchmark for model portfolios of three different asset allocations. These may be useful guides to reasonable performance of your own portfolio or its components.

Click to view the Index Return Table.

Click to view the Portfolio Benchmarks.

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Portfolio Benchmarks to 2022 July 31

Graph Icon

Each month-end we publish total return data for various investment market indices, as well as a composite portfolio return benchmark for model portfolios of three different asset allocations. These may be useful guides to reasonable performance of your own portfolio or its components.

Click to view the Index Return Table.

Click to view the Portfolio Benchmarks.

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Portfolio Benchmarks to 2022 June 30

Each month-end we publish total return data for various investment market indices, as well as a composite portfolio return benchmark for model portfolios of three different asset allocations. These may be useful guides to reasonable performance of your own portfolio or its components.

Click to view the Index Return Table.

Click to view the Portfolio Benchmarks.

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Recoveries Beat Bear Markets

Empire Life’s blog post of June 22 provided an interesting analysis of past periods of market contractions over 20%, and subsequent recoveries. One notable chart shown here:

The chart makes it clear that expansion phases usually last longer than contractions, and have a larger impact. The article compares this period with the 1970-1985 period of peak inflation and interests rates, noting similar depth and duration of corrections about -23% over 6 months, and recoveries of 55-70% over the following 18 months. Those recovery phases produce returns well above the market average.

Will investors see an environment of low inflation and interest rates similar to the past two decades or something closer to the inflationary environment five decades ago? Perhaps the answer is “somewhere in the middle”. But, here are a few things to remember:


• In either case and as history has shown, staying invested has proven to be a beneficial strategy for the long-term investor.
• Adding to your investments, particularly after large market contractions will likely help expedite your portfolio’s recovery.


Full Article: https://blog.empirelife.ca/blog/corrections-what-we-can-learn-from-the-past